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Low Probability, High Impact Threat: Polar Bears

Part of preparing to trek across Baffin Island in Canada’s arctic includes a discussion on polar bears.  Clearly, I exhibited a chronic lack of imagination in this area when I quickly evaluated various risks before hopping into this adventure: cold, discomfort, frost bite, injuries, exhaustion all made the cut. Polar bears were not even on the list.

Polar bears are magnificent animals, the largest land carnivore.  Scientists currently believe there are approximately 26,000 of them roaming mostly above the arctic circle. 

Like all good business people, I am trained in risk analysis and threat assessments.  Look, this is just a fancy way of saying what can harm me, what is the chance of it happening and how badly could that outcome be?  But working in that vein, here is what I see:

HazardVulnerabilityImpact
Polar bears in their own habitatMe: 5’10” woman

Polar bear:
Adult 330-1500 lbs
Stands up to 10 feet tall

Frequency of human attack:
Very rare 1 to 3x per year
Death
and/or
Dismemberment

Being a good business woman – I paid close attention to the film on polar bears during training.  Here is what it taught:

First, if a polar bear approaches – stand tall, speak loudly and firmly, to convince it that you are not a tasty seal.  Do NOT run.    – OK, got it.  Check.  You cannot outrun a polar bear.  Convince it you are big and scary and taste bad.  Dubious of success – but that is what you do.

Second – polar bears have two types of charges – the fake or the attack. After seeing film examples of each, only one conclusion could be reached. To the untrained eye THEY LOOK EXACTLY THE SAME.  Please return to the preceding point.

Third – if you are attacked – fight back with all your might. (Wait, what?)

Like many business risks I have seen over they years, some things are very unlikely to happen.  That being said, being as prepared as possible is still important because the potential negative impact is so high (remember the death and/or dismemberment?).

So, like dealing with many threats – stand tall and don’t look like something to be eaten. And if the threat attacks – fight with all your might. The chance of survival may be low, but in view of the alternative you have nothing to lose by fighting.

The final message becomes this – Good Luck.

2 Comments

  1. Louise Hastie
    Louise Hastie March 11, 2019

    This is excellent advice: stand tall and don’t look like something to be eaten! Perfect! Good luck, I look forward to following your journey (I’m a friend of Darlene’s 😊).

  2. Diane Dunn
    Diane Dunn March 19, 2019

    Stand tall and don’t get eaten… good life lesson!

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